Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 240 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 240 · DFW → FCO

departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 11:33 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at FCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FCO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FCO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

FCO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 240 · DFW → FCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to FCO?