Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2412 · PHX → AUS

departs 1:41 PM MT · arrives 5:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2412 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?