Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2417 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2417 · DFW → MEX

departs 9:21 PM CT · arrives 12:13 AM CST

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2417 · DFW → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?