Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2421 · PHX → SFO

departs 5:31 PM MT · arrives 6:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±13 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2421 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?