Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2433 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2433 · PHL → SJU

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM AT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2433 · PHL → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?