Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2449 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2449 · DFW → JAX

departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

JAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2449 · DFW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?