tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 2471 · PHX → SNA

departs 5:02 PM MT · arrives 5:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
56% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6.8d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SNA?

  1. On time or early
    43%
  2. 15–30 min late
    14%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    28%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    10%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.