Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2472 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2472 · ORD → ATL

departs 7:31 PM CT · arrives 10:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2472 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?