Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2499 · ORD → DFW

departs 5:28 PM CT · arrives 7:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±8 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2499 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?