AA 2524 · SFO → ORD

departs 3:11 PM PT · arrives 9:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2524 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?