Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

departs 10:56 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2564 · DFW → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?