Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2571 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2571 · ORD → RIC

departs 7:01 PM CT · arrives 10:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2571 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?