AA 2604 · AUS → ORD

departs 4:59 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2604 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?