Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2637 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2637 · PHX → SNA

departs 8:36 PM MT · arrives 9:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±12 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

SNA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2637 · PHX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?