Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2642 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2642 · SFO → ORD

departs 3:20 PM PT · arrives 9:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2642 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?