AA 2645 · IAH → ORD

departs 2:34 PM CT · arrives 5:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2645 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?