Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2663 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 11:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2663 · PHL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?