AA 2669 · PHX → EWR

departs 10:28 PM MT · arrives 5:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

EWR (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2669 · PHX → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?