AA 2689 · PHX → SAN

departs 9:15 PM MT · arrives 9:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

SAN (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2689 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?