Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2772 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2772 · JFK → AUS

departs 8:22 PM ET · arrives 11:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2772 · JFK → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?