Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2783 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2783 · SEA → PHX

departs 3:22 PM PT · arrives 7:23 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2783 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?