AA 2816 · DFW → ELP

departs 6:07 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2816 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?