Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2844 · PHX → JAX

departs 4:09 PM MT · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

JAX (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.79 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2844 · PHX → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?