Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2845 · DFW → TUS

departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2845 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?