Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2852 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2852 · DFW → DEN

departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2852 · DFW → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?