AA 2855 · PHX → GRR

departs 5:00 PM MT · arrives 10:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.68 in

GRR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2855 · PHX → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?