AA 2861 · SNA → DFW

departs 2:54 PM PT · arrives 7:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SNA that day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.43 in

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2861 · SNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?