Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2987 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 2987 · CVG → PHL

departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 9:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2.33333 mi Precip0.04 in

PHL (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2987 · CVG → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?