Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3021 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3021 · PHX → ABQ

departs 6:56 PM MT · arrives 8:19 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±8 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ABQ that day

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.78 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3021 · PHX → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?