Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3030 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3030 · DFW → MCI

departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 4:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3030 · DFW → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?