Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3039 · IAH → ORD

departs 5:34 PM CT · arrives 8:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3039 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?