AA 3125 · DFW → TUS

departs 3:02 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUS that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3125 · DFW → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?