AA 3188 · PSP → PHX

departs 6:31 PM PT · arrives 8:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

74% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
32%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PSP (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.18 in

PHX (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3188 · PSP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?