AA 3216 · PHL → ATL

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,533 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3216 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?