AA 3232 · PHX → IAH

departs 8:01 PM MT · arrives 11:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at IAH that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.70 in

IAH (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3232 · PHX → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?