Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3257 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3257 · PHX → TUS

departs 3:58 PM MT · arrives 4:57 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at TUS that day

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

TUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3257 · PHX → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?