Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3260 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 3260 · PHX → TPA

departs 10:06 PM MT · arrives 4:17 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
31%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3260 · PHX → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?