AA 3273 · PHX → SJC

departs 5:28 PM MT · arrives 6:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

67% chance · ±16 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.68 in

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3273 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?