Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 3286 · LAS → DFW

departs 5:59 PM PT · arrives 11:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3286 · LAS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?