AA 3291 · PHX → SAN

departs 6:05 PM MT · arrives 6:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.69 in

SAN (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.65 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3291 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?