Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 357 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 357 · PHX → PHL

departs 3:53 PM MT · arrives 10:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.46 in

PHL (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 357 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?