AA 445 · DFW → SAT

departs 8:02 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 445 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?