AA 454 · AUS → PHL

departs 12:47 PM CT · arrives 5:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 454 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?