Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 485 · DFW → MFE

departs 10:27 PM CT · arrives 12:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ MFE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MFE (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 485 · DFW → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?