AA 499 · ORD → CID

departs 10:24 PM CT · arrives 11:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CID (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 499 · ORD → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?