Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 540 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 540 · GEG → PHX

departs 2:47 PM PT · arrives 6:31 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±8 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ GEG usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.78 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 540 · GEG → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?