AA 545 · PHX → PHL

departs 10:41 PM MT · arrives 5:22 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.65 in

PHL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 545 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?