Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 546 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 546 · DFW → SAT

departs 7:22 PM CT · arrives 8:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 546 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?