AA 555 · ORD → IAH

departs 3:18 PM CT · arrives 6:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at IAH that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 555 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?