Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 559 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 559 · PHX → SAN

departs 8:57 PM MT · arrives 9:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±10 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.80 in

SAN (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.77 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 559 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?